U.S. Closer to End of Covid Pandemic Than Beginning: Ex-FDA Chief

Bloomberg Quicktake: Now published this video item, entitled “U.S. Closer to End of Covid Pandemic Than Beginning: Ex-FDA Chief” – below is their description.

Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration, says he’s optimistic that the pandemic will fade this fall as more people become vaccinated.

“If you look at what’s happening in the south, it seems to be starting to peak in some of the outbreak states, the RT, the rate of transfer, is still above one, meaning you still have an expanding epidemic, but it’s falling,” Gottlieb said.

Gottlieb, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said he expects the rate of infection will go down in the coming weeks and schools will be able to drop mask requirements.

“We might be at the point in time where we’re coming down with the risk is substantially reduced at that point,” he added.

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  • 1 thought on “U.S. Closer to End of Covid Pandemic Than Beginning: Ex-FDA Chief”

    1. So difficult to know for sure, but Gottlieb’s estimates certainly give us hope. One question, though: I’m not a statistician, but my understanding is that exponential increases spike rapidly, then tend to decline rapidly before they level off. In cities like New York and Chicago (where I am), COVID cases are increasing, but not at the exponential rates we’re seeing in the South. Does that mean that nit will eventually take us longer to see a more gradual decline, when/if it happens?

      I’m also very concerned about the discrepancy between overall (state-level, city-level, even U.S.-level) vaccination rates and the wide disparities (among geographic regions, ethnic groups, etc.) that are somewhat hidden within those larger numbers. In the UK, I believe, vaccination rates are roughly consistent across the board; not so here, where in Illinois, for instance, our overall rate is 49% fully vaccinated (not nearly enough), but in some counties it’s <20%; in Chicago, it's 52.7 %, (also not nearly enough), but the predominantly Black and Latino South and West Side neighborhoods are hovering somewhere around the md-40s. I believe NYC shows similar discrepancies among different communities and ethnic groups. Hence — can we really use the UK model to predict what might happen here.

      Reply

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