Mongolian voters are heading to the polls facing a electoral paradox: More candidates than ever to choose from and increasing concern that power is becoming concentrated in the hands of two top politicians.
More than 600 candidates are competing Wednesday for 76 seats on the country’s Great State Khural — in the first parliamentary elections since a landslide win by the Mongolian People’s Party four years ago. The Democratic Party and a handful of smaller opposition groups face a tough battle to unseat Prime Minster Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, 52, whose party currently holds 63 seats.
Since taking the premier’s post in 2017, Khurelsukh has strengthened his political position through unlikely cooperation with President Battulga Khaltmaa, 57, of the rival DP. They pushed through a series of legislative changes last year including the removal of measures intended to protect the independence of the courts and anti-corruption investigators. Khurelsukh also secured new powers to select cabinet members and extended the length of the president’s term.
The shift has fueled concerns that Mongolia’s status as an “oasis of democracy” between Russia and China may be under threat three decades after the country’s first open election in 1990. Authorities took the unprecedented step in recent weeks of arresting five candidates, including three from the DP and two members of the MPP.
Such scandals have helped weaken support for the two main political parties, amid broader concerns about coronavirus outbreaks and a sudden drop in exports. That’s helped fuel a surge in independent candidates — with 121 running for seats this year — and unflattering comparisons to other countries seen as suffering from a decline in democratic institutions.
“Let’s think about India and Turkey. A decade ago we thought ‘Oh, nice institutional democracies,’” said Julian Dierkes, a researcher at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver who focuses on Mongolia. He said Mongolia was “similar to those places.”
Mongolia’s polls are open from from 7 a.m. until 10 p.m. local time. While final results may take days to compile, recent winners have been announced within hours of polls closing. This year’s vote has been complicated by the pandemic, with Mongolia adopting similar infection-control measures to those used for elections in nearby South Korea in April.
The DP’s standard-bearer is former Prime Minister Amarjargal Rinchinnyam, who held the premier’s post from 1999 to 2000. Amarjargal, a leading protester and activist during the country’s transition to democracy in the 1980s, faces competition from a handful of new smaller parties vying for the interest of younger voters, residents of the capital Ulaanbaatar and other disaffected groups.
While the MPP is hoping for a repeat of its decisive 2016 victory, the successor of the Soviet-era ruling party must overcome a Covid-driven economic downturn. A short-term ban on sending coal to China in February sent exports sliding 38.5% in the first five months of the year, and Mongolia reported a 10.7% economic contraction for the first quarter.
Yet the country has managed to keep its coronavirus cases low by closing its border, banning public gatherings and establishing curfews on restaurants and pubs, giving Khurelsukh a boost.
“Election campaigning will be in favor of the ruling party,” said Sumati Luvsandendev, political analyst and head of the Ulaanbaatar-based polling group Sant Maral Foundation. “The economic downfall will be blamed on the epidemic, thus giving the ruling party pretty good chances to form the government without a coalition.”
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