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Celebrating the liberation of Mosul… three years after the cleric Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared at a mosque in the city to declare a self-styled caliphate.Since then, US intelligence officials estimate that more than sixty thousand fighters from the Islamic State militant group have been killed – including many of its leaders.[map] And the large swathes of territory it seized in Iraq and Syria have been dramatically reduced since January 2015.[map] But the group still has a presence in stratigically important areas, such as Tal Afar, Hawija and much of Anbar province in Iraq, as well as Raqqa, and Damascus in Syria. Many jihadists have also relocated to Mayadin where they control the oil fields which provide their biggest source of revenue….SOT: Ranj Alaaldin, Brookings Institute, Doha: ”It has a mafia-like system in place which will allow it to oppress the local population, extort local businesses, to make the environment an unhealthy one for the reconstruction effort, for stabilisation efforts. How will the organisation regroup? The remnants of the organisation could potentially strike deals with local actors.”While the imminent fall of Raqqa could spell the end of the so-called caliphate, experts say that won”t mean an end to radical militancy – or the final defeat of the Islamic State group…It has affiliates in Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, Yemen, Nigeria and the Philippines….. as well as a highly efficient online operation fuelling recent so-called lone wolf attacks which have hit several European countries, including the UK, France and Germany. Such atrocities illustrate the international reach of the Islamic State ideology – but some experts believe the group”s influence may be waning…SOT: Max Abrahms, Professor of Poltical Science, Northeastern University: ”This is a group that has used violence very indiscriminately, and this sort of behaviour is associated with militant group implosion.”After nearly nine months of intense fighting to retake Mosul, now begins the more difficult challenge for Iraq and the international community – of reconciliation and reconstruction.
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