‘The bull market will likely begin in 2014’ states Clem Chambers, best-selling author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and CEO of world leading investment site, ADVFN.com.
For this coming year, my speculation is, “the great depression is dead”.
Yes, we may fall off fiscal cliffs, and yes we will have currency crises. Yes, interest rate moves and QEs will shake and stir, but nonetheless, like the Mayan calendar, the bear market started by the credit crunch has run its course. The world will go on.
From my point of view, this is all an investor needs to know. Anyone can make a profit investing in a bull market. And we are in the overture of a bull market.
Not many people in 2000 believed we were in for a 12 year bear market, so it is not a wholly ridiculous prediction to make.
A huge equities rally is possible for several reasons. A minor reason is: a 12 year bear market has to come to an end sometime. However, I think the main reason is the huge reflation of the US and Europe which has at last begun to produce the desired recovery. Couple this with China’s recovery, which has kicked off now it has worked through its soft/hard landing to avoid a boom and crash in property, similar to the one that felled the West.
Add to these events, the news that Japan is going for a dash for growth, and you have an alignment of giant bullish factors.
An inflationary Japan will set a series of inflationary dominos falling and there will be growth. Not just old school growth but a sudden explosion of it.
Things could go wrong and we could get massive inflation, yet things could go right and we could get huge growth with mild, technology-dampened inflation and global growth.
The world’s demographics can easily deliver a huge decade-long boom. In any event there’s going to be a step-change in activity from defensive, deflationary economics to frothy, reflationary activity.
The beginning of the next financial era is near. It will more likely occur in 2014, as I’m often early to the party.
The active investor couldn’t ask for more. ‘The trend is your friend’ – especially if you can catch it early. What’s more, this trend is up.
The way to go is to ride the trend. Take on risk. Short money and go long on hard assets.
