A tropical depression has formed in the South West Indian Ocean leading to a mariner’s warning for squally weather and gale force winds. The fronds of the storm are already brushing over Madagascar.
The co-ordinates and particulars have been summarised from RSMC La Reunion-Tropical Cyclone Centre & Meteo-France:
Position on 30th November 2010 at 1200UTC: 13.3S / 85.7E
Movement: South-South-East 7 KT
Dvorak Analysis: 2.0/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
Central pressure: 998 HPA
Max Average Wind Speed: 30 KT
12H: 2010/12/01 00 UTC: 13.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/12/01 12 UTC: 14.5S/86.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
36H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 15.2S/87.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
48H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 15.9S/89.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 16.7S/90.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 17.9S/92.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
Last satellite imagery shows that LLCC is now totally exposed east of deep convection.
Despite the pulse of convection last night, the system is suffering a temporary increase of the vertical wind shear and durnal effect.
The system should remain in a low steering flow during the next 12-24 hours and most guidance suggests a SouthEastwards drift.
After that, the system should be caught within a Westerly steering flow South of the low to mid level equatorial ridge and North of an upper to mid level mid-lat through.
Consequently, it should accelerate on a EastSouthEasterly track.
The intensity forecast is not changed. It still shows a 24-36hrs window for intensification as the system should be under light shear.
Then, shear should build back and a weakening trend is forecast.