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Weather: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Weather: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Severe tropical cyclone Yasi is due to hit Townsville at 10pm on February 2nd 2011, further compacting the effect of devastating floods which have hit the region in the last month. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology released this warning:

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, and about adjacent inland parts on Wednesday afternoon.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The latest information for mariners from the  Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Nadi in Fiji on 31st January 2011 at 14:10 UTC:

Near 13.6S 160.6E at 311200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT infra-red imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Cyclone moving West at about 17 knots. Sustained maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours.

Expect:

  • Winds over 63 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre.
  • Winds over 47 knots within 80 miles of centre in the Southern semicircles and within 50 nautical miles in the Northern semicircle.
  • Winds over 33 knots within 200 nautical miles of centre in the Southern semicircle and within 150 nautical miles of centre in the North-East quadrant and within 80 miles in the North-West quadrant.

Overrall organisation has improved significantly in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent past 12 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a weak sheared environment. Cimms indicate decreasing shear along forecast path. Outflow good. System is steereed Westwards by an Easterly deep layers mean flow. Dvorak assessment based on EMBD centre CDG surround yielding  T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS. DT = 5.0, MET = 5.0 AND PT = 4.5.

Global models agree on a West-Southwest track and further intensification.

Forecasts:

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 14.1S 157.1E MOV W AT 17 KT WITH 90 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.8S 153.9E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100

KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 15.9S 150.8E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100

KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.0S 147.8E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100

KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

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