Hard-working citizens in Western nations often earn less than that which is spent on their behalf by debt-ridden governments. As poor manufacturing data this week makes more QE more likely, what will be the ultimate consequence of this long-running imbalance?
‘World War III’ or 200% inflation, are the outcomes predicted by Clem Chambers, CEO of leading investment site ADVFN.com and author of ’101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners’.
I recently found myself discussing the future shape of the world economy with a friend, one in a high-level position who happens to be responsible for about 1% of UK GDP.
He reckoned the only escape path from the economic train wreck that’s the global economy right now would come via the establishment of a worldwide financial governance system.
I suggested he was then in fact predicting WWIII…
Why? Because – whether it’s the answer to the world’s problems or not - the establishment of a “UN-like” financial system would be fought against. The control of a country’s financial system is, by proxy, control of the country itself, core to a nation’s sovereignty and not easily given up.
Instead of a painfully constructed “world government” I suggested another route – heading up the inflationary route.
An inflationary rate of 100-200% over approximately a decade would do the same “fixing” job, probably a better one in fact.
Executed at the press of a button, in complete safety, this inflationary path can be taken with no direct casualties, with few, in fact, even understanding what was going on.
Thankfully, inflation is the lazy man’s solution, meaning it will be the chosen route by world authorities consumed with the mammoth task of global economic realignment.
Much of the short-term sovereign debt is currently at levels as close to freshly printed bank notes as is possible. A problem with selling new bond debt would be the only catalyst required to morph the mountain of short term bonds into actual currency – pouring out of ATMS in inflationary quantities.
The US, with its “Operation Twist” has dammed up the water cannon of money printing – which is now sitting there just waiting to explode into the world economy.
It must be said that this money explosion will be avoided if at all possible. (Inflation nukes the pensions of the very people in charge of government.)
Yet ultimately, if no one will lend governments enough money to pay their bills, they will have to print the money – it’s the final resort when there’s simply no other way out.
INFLATION ‘NOT THAT BAD’
Even 200% inflation in coming years won’t be that bad. Inflation has been an ever-present giant in our midst for decades.
Only those belonging to the most recent generation have come to know life without hundreds of “per cents” worth of inflation being standard measure.
Life goes on in any case. The roadblocks of “special interests” are washed away by the physics of inflationary economics.
Of course, it’s not a nice state of affairs – but then the current crisis is the result of years and years of bad economic management which have played “nanny” to most of us - whether we like it or not.
People don’t seem to realise, for instance, that both the UK and American governments each spend more on the average family than the average family earns from a honest day’s work.
For what each person receives in “benefit” from this government spending it doesn’t seem possible that this could be the case – yet the numbers are out there in the public domain.
In fact, this “average money” spent on an “average family” in truth is applied to all families, whether the adults are working or not.
Think about it. When a government is the main recipient of its income as well as the main allocator of resources, how can this possibly lead to a well-run economy?
The credit crunch and sovereign debt crisis are comeuppance for this stealth nationalisation. Further consequences will slowly unfold over the next 5 to 10 years.
Well, let’s hope we can say it was inflation that reset the status quo, rather than another world war.