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Madagascar: Tropical Storm Bingiza

Image courtesy meteo France

Tropical Storm Bingiza has turned and made landfall once more in Madagascar. The current advisory from La Reunion Rsmc is as follows:

A moderate tropical storm 5, Bingiza.

  1. Position as of 2011/02/17 at 0600 UTC : within 20 NM radius of point 20.9S / 44.0E
  2. Movement: South 9 KT
  3. Dvorak analysis: 3.0/3.0 /D  0.5/6 H
  4. Central Pressure: 990 HPA
  5. Max average wind speed: (10 MN) : 40 KT radius of maximum winds (RMW) : 25 KM
  6. Extension of winds by quadrants (KM):
    1. 28 KT       NE:       SE:       SO: 180   NO: 370
    2. 34 KT       NE:       SE:       SO: 110   NO: 250
  7. First closed isobare (Pressure / Average Diam): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
  8. Vertical extension of cyclone circulation: medium

Forecasts:

12H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 21.6S/44.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 22.5S/44.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/18 18 UTC: 23.8S/45.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/19 06 UTC: 25.3S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/19 18 UTC: 26.2S/44.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
72H: 2011/02/20 06 UTC: 27.3S/44.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , SUBTROPICAL.

Longer range outlook:

96H:  21/02/2011 06 UTC: 28.7S/46.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , SUBTROPICAL.
120H: 22/02/2011 06 UTC: 32.8S/49.4E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

Additional information:

The system has rapidly intensified on a Southward track over sea. A very ill-definied eye is visible on Vis and IR imagery. Convection is concentrated very near to the centre on the Mozambique channel edge and in the North-Western part of the system. Bingiza is making landfall in the Northern vicinity of Andranopasy and its reintensification should have a very short duration with a South-South Eastward track overland.

In fact, NWP models concur on this track for the next 48 hours with a North-North-Westerly steering flow generated by the near-equatorial ridge. Associated rains should be heavy in South-Western Madagascar. Remnants of Bingiza should come back over water South of Madagascar near Ste-Marie Cape on Saturday, track temporarily South-Westward on the subtropical ridge and dip down again South-South-Eastward towards a mid-latitude trough with a subtropical and an extratropical structure.

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Editors and staffers from the Science Desk at The Global Herald.

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